Solitary Mind's Theatre
Sunday, April 21, 2024
On GIKI
Monday, February 19, 2024
Poem - 2
His spectacles press the nose
And he tries to write the prose
But he only knows how to code
Hence fails in verse such gross
Stop seeking the soulmate's sight
Small spectacles a short eye-sight
Ever fail to fall in love-at-first-sight
Forever fruitful is the family's sight
Father works decades of life ahead
In process losing the hair of his head
Rearing the child from cradle to man
With peeled skin of his mother's hand
For needed prayer he raises his hand
Can not miss the Invisible Hand
That exchanges lives for oily land
This spectre of communism on land
Toppling the states for political gain
His convictions await the final call
Of Israel falling like the Berlin Wall
Dawn which brings freedom to all
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Literature, Life, and I
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Beginning of the Middle Life - II
Monday, January 29, 2024
On Rational Behavior
In the big or small decisions in life, we tend to think of ourself as the best rational actor with a rational behavior; and simultaneously, we either do not think of other people’s actions at all, or, at best, we think of them as random actors with random behaviors. This works very well if other people’s actions do not have any affect on our decision. But, it comes as a surprise when the other person acts very differently from what we have assumed of him. The error is that we fail to take into account the fact that other people are also rational actors.
I will give you an example. Imagine there are around a hundred students in the class. The professor asks everyone to privately (no sharing with anyone) choose any integer between 0 and 100. Professor will then collect everyone’s number and calculate the overall average, say ‘A.’ He will then take one-half of that average as the final result, i.e., ‘A/2.’ The person who has chosen the number closest to this final result (half of the overall average) will get the reward. A rational person should choose the number that has the highest chance of getting the reward. For example, if the average came out to be 70 and you have chosen 35, you win. Clearly, more than one person can win as well.
Let’s say you choose 60. You can win if the class average somehow comes as 120. But this is impossible because average cannot exceed 100! So, final result cannot exceed 50. Hence, a person who is assuming that others will just randomly select numbers above 50 and below 50, is simultaneously assuming that people selecting above 50 are absolutely irrational.
How about you choose 50. You can get the reward only if the class average were close to 100, which itself is only possible if everyone else chooses numbers close to 100. But wait. Why would anyone, say Khizar, choose 100? He can never win because 100 can never be the final result. It may come as the final result only if average is 200. Impossible.
This is the problem that occurs when you assume others to act randomly, or don’t think about others at all, while you act rationally for yourself. You know not to choose a number greater than 50 but you assume others will select such numbers. Now, you start to think that others are also rational actors. They might have reached the same thought process as you have, and could have thought about choosing 50. Hmmm, you begin to realize that since everybody will start to choose 50, I should choose 25. You can win if you have thought one step ahead of others. But, if others are as rational as you are, then they might have reached the same conclusion as you have. So, 25 won’t win because 25 will be the average, and only close to 12 can win. I won’t trace each and every thought-process now, you may have guessed that 0 is the best choice. Everybody wins with 0!
The underlying idea I wanted to communicate was to realize that in the minor or major decisions we take in our lives, we instinctively take ourself as the only rational actor while at the same time considering others to be random or irrational. This way of acting or decision making has probably to do with immense number of psychological factors, a few of which include haste, less focus, prior consumption or experiences, etc. This way, it rarely occurs to our mind to stop for moment with the current decision, start thinking of its best response, and maybe our best response against that best response, and other person’s best response against our best response… It sometimes regresses infinitely, but it mostly ends.
Another short example. My university has four dining halls. In normal days, all hotels inside and outside the university are almost equally filled with people. But, when Ramzan comes, there is a large influx of people towards the dining halls. One has to stand on a long queue and wait a lot just to get some food. Many get frustrated at this, and thus after a few days, they start to think that they should just “Mess Out.” and eat from somewhere else. I am not talking about randomly leaving the queue, nor the food quality or expenses, but actively deciding never to come to the dining hall again because of long waits. Everybody starts thinking for himself only, because he only remembers his own wait, his own suffering. Large number of people stop eating from dining halls. Suddenly, dining halls are almost empty. Some people who had assumed that others will leave, know that they will not have to wait for food. So, they just suffer for a few days, and then happily eat in the dining hall.
Such a situation tells you that other people are not necessarily very rational actors. If everybody is rational, then nobody will leave the dining hall because of long-waits (again, not talking about food quality or expenses). Everybody has to wait. Here, a double-step rational thought is equivalent to zero-step rational-thought. Hence, in real-life, everybody thinks at different levels. Most think at the first-step, i.e, leave the dining hall because of long queue time — consider yourself a rational actor and don’t think about others, or just consider random behavior from others. Others think of the second step too, i.e, remain in the dining hall because queue will become very small because ‘first-step’ thinkers will leave. The game somehow reaches a stable point.
Lastly, I must say that good decisions are not guaranteed to result using the recipe of rational behavior. We are unfamiliar with other people’s level of rationality. They are also normal people, so they will not necessarily think of the best responses. It may be the touch of a great mind to integrate in his decision both the rationality and the psychology of the people involved, to somehow figure out when they will stop thinking further, and when to stop an infinite regress. To be rational does not mean to be unethical. Moreover, a purely rational person will lose the game by choosing 0; because in real life, most people will choose numbers randomly and the result will be far away from 0. Such a theory of rational behavior is called game theory. It is one of the things that you accidentally stumble upon and it remains with you for a long time. At least for me, it has.
January 29, 2024
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
An Adult Weeps - Poem
That I weep like a child
For I played with them
Today I saw them weep
They shed tears, moved legs
And waved their hands
But when I am about to sleep
I weep without moving
Either my legs or my arms
I just press my teeth
And feel my body aching
My head explodes I feel
Meaningless in all of myself
In my mind I weep loudly
But in reality I see that I
Am quiet. Family is sleeping
And I hear the sounds
Of their breath. Of my own
But my mind hits walls
I feel I have no way out
It happens again and again
After I tell myself
That it is over now
So listen my friend
I do not weep as children do